“Despite the accusations and counter accusations at the Shangri-La Dialogue, there have been a series of high-level US-China bilateral interactions in the past few weeks that were deliberately kept at a low profile for obvious reasons. It does indicate that both sides are keen to resume dialogue openly at higher levels at an appropriate time.”

Singapore Minister of Defence, Dr. Ng Eng Hen’s observations on Day 3, the final day of the Shangri-La Dialogue 2023, summed up the general sentiments of several neutral observers on the three-day annual event organised by the Institute of International Strategic Studies (IISS). He expressed disappointment over the lack of communication, calling the US-China relationship 'the elephant in the room'. He added that third parties could bring both sides together, but it was up to both countries to come up with a common solution. The first two days had focused, among other things, on the war in Ukraine and the tensions between the Chinese and the United States. The US request for a meeting between US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Gen. Li Shangfu was rejected as the Chinese side insisted it was not possible so long as the US sanction on the Chinese leader continued to be in place. In a nutshell, both sides, particularly the Chinese side appeared to have come predetermined to talk at each other rather than talk with each other and look for ways to take the relationship forward. Significantly, a meeting of the Five-Eyes Alliance was also held on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue to discuss regional security.

Cold War mentality

Day 3 of the event was marked by a lengthy speech by Gen. Li Shangfu wherein he expressed concerns about a “resurgent cold-war mentality” in the ‘Asia-Pacific region’, that is contributing to increased security risks, regional conflicts, and a sluggish economic recovery. He spoke at length about China's new Global Security Initiative (GSI) which he claimed was contributing China's wisdom and ideas for global security challenges. The Chinese Defence Minister also took a dig at the US saying that mutual respect should prevail over bullying and hegemony. He further stated that 'some countries' had wilfully interfered with other country's internal affairs, frequently resorted to unilateral sanctions, forced their own rules on others, incited colour revolutions and proxy wars in different regions, and walked away leaving a mess behind. Gen. Li, in an apparent reference to QUAD and AUKUS, rebuked the push for NATO-like alliances in the Indo-Pacific. He further claimed regional countries were being kidnapped into NATO-like alliances which led to exaggerating conflicts and confrontations.

The hostility between the Chinese and the US has not been limited to the forum in Singapore. On 3 June 2023, a People Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warship CNS Suzhou (132) cut across the bow of the US Navy warship USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93), while she was transiting through the Taiwan Strait along with a Canadian warship HMCS Montreal (FFH-336). Gen. Li when asked about this incident at the forum in Singapore, said naval vessels and fighter jets of other countries did not need to carry out 'close in actions' near other country's territories. He further said that these vessels were not there for innocent passage but were there for provocation. While Taiwan Strait under international law is considered as international waters and hence does not fall under any country's jurisdiction, China considers the waterways as its internal territorial waters. Gen. Li also emphasised China's red lines over Taiwan, clearly stating, “if anyone dares to separate China from Taiwan, the Chinese military will not hesitate for a second”. “We will fear no opponents and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity at any cost”, he added.

CNS Suzhou (132) cuts across the bow of USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93) in the Taiwan Strait on June 3, 2023. Credit - US Navy Photo

 
Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin meanwhile reiterated that the United States would support its allies and partners to defend themselves against coercion and bullying in the Western Pacific. He further stated that the United States would be committed to maintaining the status quo in Taiwan, in consistence with its One China policy and its obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act. He asserted that it understood the 'headwinds' it faces and would work to ensure no one country could exert control over the shared waterways, saying that he would work with allies to uphold freedom of navigation and right to overflight in the South China Sea. Highlighting US concerns, Defence Secretary expressed alarm over the dangerous behaviour and numerous risky intercepts of US and allied forces in international airspace. The US also recently issued a warning, expressing concerns that China's increasing aggression in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait could escalate to the extent where 'someone gets hurt'.

Chances of US-China talks

The Shangri-La Dialogue 2023 highlights the divergent perspectives of China and the United States on various critical issues, such as regional security, regional alliances, freedom of navigation and right to overflight, territorial disputes in South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Although both nations recognise the importance of dialogue and diplomacy, their military encounters at sea and in international airspace have not only resulted in numerous unsafe incidents but have also complicated matters for those advocating peaceful resolutions to disputes. The statements by both the leaders that neither side has completely ruled out the use of military force as a means to achieve their respective geopolitical objectives in the region do not portend well for the region and the world beyond. It is known that China has been steadily bolstering its military presence in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, while the United States is actively collaborating with regional allies and partners to strengthen its military footprint and maintain the existing regional status quo. The possibility of direct talks between US and Chinese leaders at the Shangri- La Dialogue had appeared doubtful even before its start. However, there have been a series of high level bilateral interactions in the past few weeks that were deliberately kept at a low profile for obvious reasons. It does indicate that both sides are keen to resume dialogue openly at higher levels at an appropriate time. In this context, someone asked yesterday: who blinked first; US or China? I think the US did, but as part of a well thought- out strategy.

(The author, a keen observer of international developments, has been contributing to several leading portals. Views expressed in the article are personal to the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of AICIS.)