Even as people across the globe are trying to forget the sufferings caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and move on with life, a new study by scientists at China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) warns that the emergence of another coronavirus disease like Covid-19 is highly likely, and the world should be prepared to face it.  Published in the journal Emerging Microbes & Infections in July, the study, led by China’s “batwoman” Shi Zhengli, claims that her team evaluated the “human spillover risk” of 40 species of coronavirus, and that half of them are “highly risky.” As SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in 2019 were both caused by coronaviruses, one or more among the above-mentioned highly risky types could infect humans in the future.  Shi says that “of these, six are already known to have caused diseases that infected humans, ……. and there is evidence that a further three caused disease or infected other animal species.” It was clarified that the “study was based on virus traits, including population, genetic diversity, host species and any previous history of zoonosis – diseases that jump from animals to humans.”

Significantly, the report added that the WIV team has also “identified quick and sensitive testing tools that could be used to actively monitor these high-risk viruses”. The report further claimed that the team has “identified important hosts of the pathogen, which include natural hosts such as bats and rodents, or possible immediate hosts including camels, civets, pigs or pangolins”.  While many pathologists were hesitant to comment on the study for various reasons, they generally agree that such information would be helpful in speeding up the process of testing and developing vaccines in future crises.

Even as the Chinese authorities at all levels have always tried to downplay the impact of Covid-19 in China, and many regional/local-level authorities have since stopped publishing infection data, the origin of Covid-19 continues to be mired in controversy. While China negates the possibility of the (WIV) lab leak theory, the U.S. does not rule out that possibility. The Chinese insist that the virus would have “emerged” in Wuhan, but it did not “originate” in Wuhan. The scientific team from World Health Organisation, comprising an equal number of Chinese and non-Chinese experts who investigated the origin and related issues of Covid-19 had initially stated that a lab leak as cause of the pandemic was unlikely. However, several non-Chinese experts in the team later alleged that they could not conduct a comprehensive investigation as they were denied access to all the people, scientific data, preserved pathological samples collected from patients etc. Subsequently, an American newspaper reported that “new intelligence had prompted the Department of Energy (DoE) to conclude that an accidental laboratory leak in China most likely caused the ……. pandemic”. The report quoted FBI Director Christopher Wray as saying that the agency has “for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan”.

It is known that the Chinese have been experimenting on coronavirus especially after a surveillance system was put in place in 2004-2005 following the 2003 SARS outbreak that infected thousands in 29 countries, mostly in Asia.  In fact, after the SARS outbreak, the US and China had taken the lead in an international effort to cooperate “more closely” on public health issues with the Chinese National Influenza Center (CNIC) and the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in setting up a Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases. Doubts were also expressed in the past that the Chinese side was experimenting with coronavirus at the WIV or elsewhere in the country for non-medical purposes as well. WIV collected coronavirus samples for experiments mostly from bat colonies thronging the disused mine shafts and caves in the southwestern Yunnan province.

While China’s success in the timely containment of the Covid-19 infection inside the country at the initial stages was notable, analysts want its failure to prevent the virus spreading beyond the country’s borders should also come under a WHO investigation. An equally or even more serious issue to be probed is whether China has been remiss, or delinquent in alerting the world of the impending pandemic if the country’s leadership was aware of some clear signs of an emerging epidemic that later turned pandemic. Did the delay occur due to the ineptness of its leadership at some level that failed to understand the seriousness of the issue? Did any Chinese officials or leaders actually hide the outbreak to save their career? Anyone who suffered directly or indirectly because of the pandemic, both in China and abroad, has the right to get answers to these questions.

(Views expressed in the article are personal to the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of AICIS. AICIS is neither responsible nor liable for the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information in the article.)